- It is standard for point spread bets in most sports that you wager $110 to win $100. The point spread given in the table above is for the home team only. To see the odds for both teams, click on the matchup. A money line, used in baseball and hockey, takes the place of a point spread. Money line betting is simply wagering on the contest based.
- College Football Odds, NCAA Betting 2021 National Championship Game Odds & News. How to Bet on the College Football National Championship: The College Football Playoff began in 2014 and is a four-team postseason tournament for NCAA FBS schools. A playoff committee selects four schools to compete in semifinals with the winners meeting in the.
- NCAA FOOTBALL SCORES AND ODDS ARCHIVES: Historical scores and odds data from past College football seasons including moneylines, 2nd half lines, opening and closing point spreads and totals. NCAA Football 2020-21; NCAA Football 2019-20; NCAA Football 2018-19; NCAA Football 2017-18; NCAA Football 2016-17; NCAA Football 2015-16; NCAA Football 2014-15.
NCAA Football Betting Strategies: Guide to the Top Systems
Get the latest NCAAF odds, spreads and betting lines from this week's games, as well as full coverage of the National Collegiate Athletic Association Football from USA TODAY. For example, if a spread for a game is -7 and you place a 3-point teaser bet, your new line is -4. This 3-point advantage applies to each aspect of the teaser play. College Football Betting Stats. Now that you know the basics of college football betting, let’s touch on some important factors to consider when handicapping games.
College Football Betting Intro
When we talk about football, we usually think first of the NFL. It is after all America’s most popular sports organization.
As we discussed in our Intro to NFL Betting, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event this past year—the Super Bowl.
And that’s just one estimate. When you look at the global numbers, this figure nearly doubles. Mint, a prominent financial planning website, estimates that bettors stake more than $8 billion every year on the Super Bowl alone.
But the NFL is not the only league to garner such attention from bettors.
NCAA football is right up there with it.
In 2014, Super Bowl XLIX only generated about 10,000 more bets than the most heavily bet college football game
In 2014, Super Bowl XLIX only generated about 10,000 more bets than the most heavily bet college football game: 122,370 compared to 112,644. And, according to CNBC, bettors stake between $60-70 billion in illegal wages on college football each year.
Since the NCAA decided to establish and expand their playoff format, bowl games and championships have proven to be hot opportunities for bettors.
Unlike the NFL, which plays almost all its games on Sunday, college football offers bettors the chance to wage on matchups happening throughout the week, including thirty plus matchups on Saturdays.
A greater slate of games means more money lines, more spreads, more chances to get some bang for your buck.
According to SportsInsights there was a point spread listed for 894 college football games in 2015. Meanwhile, in merely a handful of offshore sportsbooks, a grand total of 12,774,988 bets were placed during the college football season.
With so many options it’s easy to see why college football ranks as one of the most bet-on sports in America.
As part of this article, we will discuss the different types of bets you can make on college games as well as some helpful tips and strategies for maximizing your returns.
But before we get into all that, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.
The Sports Analytics Simulator
The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.
The best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.
This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.
Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.
A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system. Using this technology, the good doctor found that “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”
While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, college football.
What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.
The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible. From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.
For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works:
College Football Betting
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of college football betting. Much like the NFL, college football offers the standard bets: spread, moneyline, totals, parlays, and teasers. Unique to college football are the 1st quarter and halftime bets. Let’s take a look at each type.
Spread Bet
Just like the NFL, college football’s most popular wager is the spread bet.
With spreads, bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. This type of bet equalizes the chance of winning a wager.
In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Florida State over Oregon, the Sentinels must win by seven points or more. Whereas in order for the Ducks to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win.
For any spread, the underdog is indicated by a “+” while the favorite is indicated by a “-”. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’. In this case, the Ducks have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game.
Also, when looking at spreads, you’ll see a larger number next to the actual spread. It might look like this:
- Florida State -7 -115
- Oregon +7 -105
The larger number is what’s called the Juice. It’s basically the fee that bookmakers charge for you to place a bet. In our example, if Florida State covers the spread a winning bet of $115 will yield $100 profit. Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…
Moneyline Bet
Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog. Let’s go back to this Florida State-Oregon matchup.
Let’s say the Sentinels have a favored line of -150 and the Ducks have an underdog line of +125. What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Sentinels, you must wage $150.
As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. Generally, the moneyline reflects the spread.
With the sheer number of available bets on a given Saturday, a bettor may choose to parlay (see below) several big favorites, which will increase the risk AND the payout of the wager. So that’s that.
Totals Bet
Totals betting is rather self-explanatory.
Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.
Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 32 points for the Sentinels and Ducks. Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 32 points.
Prop Bet
A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.
Prop bets come in many different forms. Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.
During bowl games you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.
Parlay Bet
You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judging outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.
In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat must score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.
This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.
In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. In college football, this is a common form of betting to increase risk and reward for your wagers.
Teaser Bet
A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.
When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.
When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.
Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.
Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you have the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points. It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.
Ncaa Football Point Spreads 2020
A teaser involves the same stipulations as a parlay; only you select a number of points to put down to decrease the risk (and reward) of a parlay.
For example, if a spread for a game is -7 and you place a 3-point teaser bet, your new line is -4. This 3-point advantage applies to each aspect of the teaser play.
College Football Betting Stats
Now that you know the basics of college football betting, let’s touch on some important factors to consider when handicapping games.
First and foremost, you’ve got to understand the nature of college football. In the NFL, all 32 teams are relatively equal in stature. Size, speed, skill—the NFL is filled with ever-tight competition.
But in college football, the stakes are different. Emotions run high. Motivations change week-to-week, game-to-game.
Up to 70 players can impact the outcome of a given matchup.
Experts have a lot of ideas about what statistics most impact a college football game. The following five, derived from numbers from the 2016 season, have consistently proven their influence on a team’s odds.
Explosiveness – as measured by PPP (points per play)
This one is simple. If a team makes more big plays than their opponent, they’re likely to win the game.
According to statistics, if a team leads in PPP they will win 86 percent of their matchups.
So look for a team with a penchant for big plays, and keep an eye on their opponents’ defensive stats.
If they’re giving up high PPP numbers each week, there’s a good chance they’ll lose.
Efficiency – as measured by success rate.
Success rate is measured by a number of baselines: 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
This stat is similar to on-base percentage in baseball.
If a team has a high efficiency rating, they’re likely to avoid drive-crippling passing downs and, beyond that, stay on schedule, control the clock, and wear down their opponent’s defenses by keeping on the field.
If a team can best their opponent in efficiency, they’ll also win the game 83 percent of the time.
Field Position – as measured by average starting field position
They say special teams wins games. That’s what makes them so special.
Sure, it’s always a boost when a return man can return a kick or a punt for a touchdown. But it’s his ability to consistently provide his team with outstanding starting field position that determines his worth. Hence why good return men are so highly coveted in football.
They are often their team’s x-factor—the difference between having to drive 75 yards or 65 yards to the end zone.
As such, the team who wins the battle for field position wins the game 72 percent of the time.
Finishing Drives – as measured by points per trip inside the 40
Finish what you’ve started.
At this point you might find these tips a bit formulaic. It stands to reason that if a team creates big scoring plays, controls the clock, manages the ball, establishes solid field position, minimizes turnovers, and maximizes scoring drives, they’ll likely win the game.
When it comes to finishing drives, it’s less about how many opportunities you get inside the red zone, and more about how many points you can score once inside the 40.
There are numerous examples of teams creating more red zone opportunities but fewer scores than their opponent.
In 2012, Hawaii created 12 scoring opportunities against Colorado State’s four on October 27. They outgained the Rams by 102 yards, but still lost, 42-27. Talk about demoralizing.
The Warriors lost three turnovers (at the CSU 30, 31, and 33), punted twice (at the CSU 39 and 40), attempted three field goals (missing one), and turned the ball over on downs at the 2. Not to mention one of those three turnovers was an interception returned for a touchdown.
The point is straightforward: teams must score touchdowns on the majority of their drives that reach beyond their opponent’s 40.
Field goals will not cut it.
Ncaa Point Spreads Football
Basically, if a team can still put points on the board despite fewer scoring opportunities, they’ll win the game 72 percent of the time.
Turnovers – as measured by turnover margin
If we’re not beating a dead horse by now I don’t know what we’re doing.
Surprisingly enough turnovers are not the biggest factor to consider when handicapping games. But they still matter.
If you can minimize the amount of times you give up the ball, you’re obviously going to increase your chances of capitalizing on offense.
Keep the ball in your possession, and the game is likely yours—assuming you can put the ball in the end zone. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 73 percent of the time.
While mastering these five aspects will go a long way towards helping a team win, bettors must not solely rely on them for handicapping games. College football outcomes swing like a loose pendulum.
Cellar dwellers beat good teams when they’re not looking, or at the very least beat the spread. Slumping squads can come out strong against rivals or must-wins.
Oh, and there are other conferences besides the big ones (SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Pac 12).
Oddsmakers tend to look at the big TV games and the big conference matchups—the ones they know the betting public will be going heavy on.
This means, smaller conference games will likely slip through the cracks. If you’re betting ‘over/unders,’ look at the smaller conferences as value could be there because of the lack of two-way action.
There is big money to be made in smaller-market games. One thing I’ve learned in life is never to follow the crowd. If you want to outsmart oddsmakers and increase your returns, be your own advocate, look for the games people are sleeping on.
Thankfully, they’re not hard to find in the NCAA.
- Where to Bet:
How to read College Football Las Vegas Odds
Similar to our Money Line and 1st Half Odds, every matchup is listed in order of Rotation and those numbers are preceded by the Date and Time of the College Football game.
The rotation for college football games typically lists them by scheduled starting time, which can lead to some confusion since the number will remain the same even if the games wind up changing due to television networks often shifting around action to present more attractive matchups. Home teams are listed at the bottom and will therefore be your even-numbered squad.
The numbers next to the teams are called Spreads or Point-Spreads.
Favorites are the teams laying points, which is represented by a minus (-) sign. The team in the Underdog role is getting points, which is represented by the plus (+) symbol that you wouldnt see on the board but would be represented next team onto you betting ticket or slip. You can add the spread to your teams final score and have that edge throughout the game.
If there is no favorite or underdog, the line is called pickem and is represented by (PK). Winner takes it. The amount of points a team is favored by is set by oddsmakers on Sunday afternoons and that figure fluctuates throughout the week based on the amount of money coming in on bets.
Opposite from the spread youll find the Total, which represents what oddsmakers believe will be the combined number of points scored between the teams. That number also increases or decreases based on bets coming in on the Over or Under.
How to Bet College Football Las Vegas Odds
The key to wagering successfully in college football spread betting is to decide early how many points youre willing to lay with Favorites and to get in at the lowest possible spot.
If youre going to back the Underdog, make sure youre getting the most points possible entering the game. The skill in this often requires you to forecast how a game will be wagered since we often see opening lines bet up over the course of the week due to the majority of the money coming in on the favorite.
Of course, getting in too early can often backfire if a better number appears over the course of the week or if injuries that are typically not announced until coaches give status reports on Monday press conferences dramatically alter expectations. Theres also a big rush on betting action just before the kickoff of any game, which means you may be best off waiting until kickoff approaches to get the right number.
Take the 2019 college football Big 12 matchup between Texas-West Virginia as a prime example. The Longhorns opened as an 11.5-point favorite and won 42-31 after the Mountaineers scored the games final touchdown with :48 left. West Virginia backers who got in early prevailed on that score, while Texas bettors who guessed wrong and got in too early caught a bad beat. Those who waited and laid only 10.5 points still cashed. Get in at the best number!
College Football Opening Line
Opening Lines in college football are typically set on Sunday afternoons in the current week and you usually see immediate action cause line movement. The Spread is based on a rough projection of a score for every matchup, although oddsmakers have a good idea of what side the betting public will want to bet and usually saddles that team with an additional point or three. The same goes for the Total, which projects the combined number of points expected in a contest.
These numbers are based on simulations that take a number of statistical factors into account in addition to baking in injuries, a homefield advantage that is typically worth three points and any other potential edges. Teams coming off bye weeks are usually given an edge thanks to increased preparation time and fresher bodies. Teams coming in on short rest or that have to travel out of their element typically find themselves penalized in a point spread.
UCLA at Cincinnati (-4)
In the above example, UCLA was made a four-point underdog against Cincinnati in the 2019 season opener for both. The betting public jumped on the team from the higher-regarded conference, perhaps believing that the West-Coast team heading more than halfway across the country was being penalized too harshly and the line closed at 2.5 points. Cincinnati prevailed 24-14. The opening line of 4 was accurate in calling for a larger margin of victory than the closing line, which is where the opener ultimately ends up.
VI Consensus College Football Line
When looking at the numbers over the course of the week, youll see constant line movement on our odds and matchup pages. All of the betting properties we track create their own lines and we display and track all of their movements in the VegasInsider.com Consensus Line. At any given point in the week, from when the line opens until just before kickoff, youll see different numbers representing the current lines. Those may vary from one another since properties offer up their own lines, so VIs Consensus Line represents the one that appears most commonly.
The Total is also available on the VI Consensus line and similarly consists of the current betting line which most frequently among our list of Las Vegas and Global sportsbooks. For an example, in the most recent National Championship between LSU and Clemson, there was significant line fluctuation throughout the two-week lead up. LSU was laying 5.5 to 6 points in multiple locations as the favorite. The battle of Tigers ended with LSU blowing out Clemson 42-25, covering the spread handily.